The aftermath of the highly scrutinized U.S. presidential election has finally settled. For the first time in history, neither the marijuana reform movement nor the $32 billion U.S. cannabis sector faces concerns on Election Day. Remarkably, both major party candidates have publicly endorsed legalizing marijuana at the state level. With President-elect Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris advocating for the ongoing reclassification process, it appears probable that marijuana will be designated as a Schedule III substance by 2025.
Reclassifying marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act will alleviate regulatory burdens associated with Section 280E of the Internal Revenue Code—a significant shift that promises an immediate advantage for companies operating within the cannabis industry. Once this reclassification is accomplished, we can anticipate that federal acknowledgment of cannabis's medicinal value may catalyze advancements in research and product development aimed at therapeutic applications.
Indeed, Trump expressed support for Florida's adult-use legalization initiative known as Title III in early September, becoming one of the first major party candidates to address issues surrounding marijuana policy directly. Following his successful election campaign, clarity regarding this new administration’s stance and policy direction on marijuana is expected to emerge."
Of course, for some operators, interstate trade and national level legalization is not good, because their business profit model is based on the existence of differentiated state markets. Still, the consensus in the industry is that whoever wins the presidency will have a positive impact.
"Candidates on both sides of the aisle are committed to marijuana reform, and that's enough to inspire optimism about the future of the marijuana community," said David Culver, senior vice president of public affairs for the National Cannabis Council. The American Cannabis Council is a lobbying group for regulated cannabis operators based in Washington, DC.
In many ways, the electoral prospects for marijuana are not very bright.
Florida, North Dakota and South Dakota (all red states) are considering legalizing marijuana for adults. While a victory in all three states is unlikely - polls suggest Florida is the most likely. A win would bring the number of states that regulate adult marijuana to 27. If voters pass adult marijuana legalization in only one of those states, then federal marijuana reform should become a more urgent priority for lawmakers.
And if voters reject it in all three states, it will lend credence to the theory that state-level efforts stop at "red walls." The endorsement of a presidential candidate, then, should still carry weight. On Capitol Hill, analysts say Congress is likely to remain divided. But incremental reform is possible in the next Congress, and very likely. The next session may be "the best opportunity for reform the industry has ever seen".
